SHFE Tin Fluctuated at Highs, Faces Directional Choice Amid Tight Supply-Demand Balance [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the noon of October 21, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract showed a fluctuating trend at highs. By the close of the morning session, the price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract rebounded slightly, hovering around 281,380 yuan/mt, up 0.87% from the previous night session's closing price. In the morning session, SHFE tin prices fluctuated rangebound within the 280,000-282,000 yuan/mt range, with relatively sluggish market transactions. Meanwhile, LME tin futures prices also strengthened, with the latest LME tin quote at $35,335/mt, up $35, or 0.1%.

In terms of supply and demand fundamentals, the current tin market is in a tug-of-war between "insufficient supply elasticity" and "disrupted demand relay." In terms of supply, the resumption of production at Myanmar's tin mines has been slow, with imports remaining low, while Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining continues, further exacerbating global concerns over tin ore supply. Domestically, the smelting sector is under pressure, with refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi maintaining operating rates below 30%. On the demand side, the operating rate for tin solder remains low, with limited improvement in orders from downstream and end-user enterprises. Demand from traditional sectors such as consumer electronics and home appliances is weak, but demand from emerging areas like AI servers and NEVs is steadily growing. Inventory data shows that overseas inventories are persistently low, and domestic inventory pressure is limited, providing some support to tin prices.

Overall, SHFE tin is currently in a tight balance state, with coexisting bullish and bearish factors but lacking strong drivers. It is expected that in the afternoon, the most-traded SHFE tin contract will continue to hover at highs, with the core fluctuation range estimated at 280,000-283,000 yuan/mt.